North Metric

    Churn predictionfor SaaS on Stripe.

    Every paying Stripe customer gets a 0⁠–⁠100 risk score and plain reasons, ranked by money at risk.

    Get your free churn report →Actions off until you turn them on
    IN SHORTMRR × risk

    Customer churn prediction software scores how likely each customer is to cancel, from signals such as failed payments, plan cuts and falling usage.

    North Metric gives every paying Stripe customer a risk level, a 0⁠–⁠100 risk score and up to three dated reasons, then ranks them by MRR × risk so the biggest dollars come first.

    RISK LEVELLikely · Possible · SafeRISK SCORE0⁠–⁠100REASONSup to 3, dated
    At risk· ranked by MRR × riskEXAMPLE
    #TOP REASONLEVELAT RISK
    01CANCEL SETCancel set for Nov 30Likely$2.4K/mo
    02USAGE DROPUsage 41% below baseline—$1.1K/mo
    03FAILED PAYMENTStripe’s retries endedLikely$940/mo
    BASIS · billing + usageScheduled cancel → Likely
    01THE RISK SCORE

    How the risk scorereads your Stripe data.

    The score starts from Stripe billing and adds usage matched to how each customer pays. The churn risk guide covers the signals in depth.

    01 · WHAT IT READS→2usage sources: PostHog, Meters
    Billing is in Stripe, usage often elsewhere, and the two rarely meet.Stripe billing, plus PostHog or Stripe Meters usage matched to each pricing model.
    Usage drops →
    02 · WHAT IT DECIDES→0–100risk score per paying customer
    A list of every customer doesn’t say who is likely to leave first.A risk level, Likely, Possible or Safe, plus a 0⁠–⁠100 risk score. Higher is riskier.
    Churn risk guide →
    03 · WHAT YOU SEE→3reasons, with data and dates
    A score with no reason gives you nothing to say to the customer.Up to three plain reasons with data and dates, and a basis line saying what was used.
    02SIGNALS

    Which signalspoint to churn.

    Billing signals come from Stripe; usage drops come from PostHog or Stripe Meters. Each flag becomes one move, approved by you or run by your rules.

    SIGNAL · USAGE · REASON · MOVE · AMOUNTEXAMPLE
    FAILED PAYMENTdo_not_honorusage steadyStripe’s retries ended → personal note→Card-update note$940/mo
    CANCEL SETcancel scheduledusage −52%Cancel set for Nov 30 → save email today→Save email, pause offer$2.4K/mo
    USAGE DROPplan cut to Basic−41% · 4 wksUsage 41% below baseline → check-in→Check-in note$1.1K/mo
    03RANKING

    Ranked by moneyat risk, not score.

    Ranked by money at risk, not by score alone. Example: a $3K/mo customer scored 60 comes before a $90/mo customer scored 95.

    THE SAME TWO CUSTOMERS, TWO ORDERSEXAMPLE
    BY SCORE ALONE
    01score 95$90/mo
    02score 60$3K/mo
    ↓REORDERED
    BY MONEY AT RISK
    01$3K/mo × 60scored 60 · comes first
    02$90/mo × 95scored 95 · comes second
    01MRR × risk sets the orderThe list sorts by monthly revenue times risk score, so the biggest dollars at risk sit at the top.
    02Usage revenue counted the same wayFor usage pricing, MRR is the average of the last 3 metered invoices, added to any fixed fee.
    03Valuable customers stand outAbove your valuable line (median MRR by default, yours to change), moves can include a save offer.
    04Scheduled cancels go to LikelyA scheduled cancel or an unrecovered failed payment sets the level to Likely, whatever the other signals say.
    05Quiet months marked by youMark your known quiet months. A drop inside them shows “Seasonal?” and doesn’t raise risk on its own.
    04PREDICT TO PREVENT

    Churn prediction vschurn prevention.

    Prediction tells you who is likely to leave. Prevention is what you do next, and whether it worked. North Metric does both.

    PREDICTION
    Prediction: a ranked listWho is likely to churn, what they pay and why. Useful, but a list on its own keeps no one.
    PREVENTION
    ONE MOVENEEDS YOUR APPROVALDrafted note, offer or follow-upApproveEditSkip
    Prevention: one move per customerA drafted note, offer or follow-up, chosen by customer type and reason, that you approve or run by rule.
    Not using it isn’t a price problemCustomers who stopped using it get a check-in or a pause, not a reflex discount. Usage-only customers never get a pause.
    Proof: kept against left aloneA comparison group, 10% by default, gets no move, so you can see what the moves changed.
    See your own customers ranked by money at risk, with the reason for each.Get your free churn report →Actions off until you turn them onOr try the demo →
    05AFTER THE FLAG

    What happens aftera customer is flagged.

    A flag becomes one drafted move in your Queue, chosen by customer type and the top reason.

    1FlaggedTop reason picked
    2DraftedOne move in your Queue
    3ApprovedOr run by a rule
    4Re-checkedAgainst Stripe, before sending
    ✓Kept MRRTied to invoices
    YOU DECIDEApproveEditSkipRun by rule

    Approve it, edit it or skip it, or let a rule run it within the limits you set.

    LOCKED MOVESPRICE CHANGE · ALWAYS ASKS

    Locked moves, such as price changes, always ask. Your approvals and rules decide what runs on its own.

    RE-CHECKEDRe-check Stripe→✓ Resolved on its own

    Before anything is sent, North Metric re-checks Stripe. If the trigger cleared, the card closes as resolved on its own.

    PROVENEXAMPLEMOVELEFT ALONE

    Customers who stay after a move count as Kept MRR, tied to invoices, and a comparison group shows what changed. Read how we measure money kept.

    06FAQ

    Questions aboutchurn prediction.

    It scores Stripe billing signals, such as failed payments, seat or plan cuts, scheduled cancels and discounts ending, plus usage drops from PostHog or Stripe Meters. Each customer gets Likely, Possible or Safe and a 0⁠–⁠100 score, with up to three reasons.

    CHURN PREDICTION

    See who is likelyto churn, and why.

    Get your free churn report →Actions off until you turn them on