North Metric

    The money you kept,and how we know.

    Every move is tied to invoices and compared with at-risk customers left alone. Method v1 · Oct 2026.

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    IN SHORT

    North Metric ties every kept dollar to a Stripe invoice and compares at-risk customers with a comparison group left alone, 10% by default.

    Exact dollars show what was kept after a move. The comparison shows what was kept because of it, as a range, labeled Early until there is enough data to read it.

    COMPARISON GROUP10%
    0%30%
    AT RISK, AS ASSIGNED
    HELD BACKStripe still retries and emails them
    01KEPT MRR

    Money kept,tied to invoices.

    Kept MRR is the MRR of customers saved, recovered or won back by moves in the last 12 months, while they still pay.

    MOVES IN THE LAST 12 MONTHSEXAMPLEKept MRR, tied to invoicesPending, not counted yet$6.2KKept MRR
    TRIAL STARTS
    NOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCT
    MONTH$/MO KEPT
    02LEFT ALONE

    The comparison group:customers left alone.

    The last step of how it works: a small share of at-risk customers gets no move, so what your moves changed can be measured.

    0110% by default, 0–30% your choiceSet the share anywhere from 0 to 30%. At 0%, the Ledger shows exact dollars only.
    02Picked before any move is draftedA customer is assigned when churn prediction first marks them at risk, never after the fact.
    03Top accounts are never held backYour top accounts, the 10 highest-MRR customers by default, are always eligible for a move.
    01Always labeled Held backHeld customers are never acted on unless you release them, and every release is logged.
    02Stripe still works for themHeld-back customers still get Stripe’s own retries and emails.
    03Held until the window settlesEach stays in the group until their 90-day window closes.
    03AFTER VS BECAUSE

    Kept aftervs kept because.

    Exact dollars show what was kept after a move. The comparison shows what was kept because of it. North Metric shows both, apart.

    20 at risk · $200/mo each · check-in onlyEXAMPLE
    THE USUAL WAYKept after
    DAY 020 check-ins sentOne question each, no offer
    DAY 6016 still payingEvery one counted as a save
    DAY 60$3.2K/mo claimedNo customers left alone to compare
    DAY 90Total reads as a winSome would have stayed anyway
    16 of 20 counted$3.2K
    NORTH METRICBoth shown
    DAY 02 held back, 18 notesPicked before any draft
    DAY 60Kept after: $3K/mo15 of 18 paying, tied to invoices
    DAY 90Held back comparedToo few customers to read yet
    DAY 90Exact dollars onlyEarly starts at 10 held back
    $3K after · no comparison yet$3K
    THE 20, ON DAY 60Paying after a noteLeft after a noteHeld back
    04EARLY AND READABLE

    Early andReadable.

    These labels say how far to trust the comparison. At the default 10%, one account needs many at-risk customers to reach Readable.

    EARLYREADABLE
    From 10 held-back customers with a closed 90-day windowFrom 40 held-back customers with a closed 90-day window
    Exact dollars kept, tied to invoicesKept because of North Metric, as a $/mo range and per year
    Comparison labeled Early: it may still moveAlways a range, never a single exact number
    Exact dollars only, if Readable is 2+ quarters offNo clear difference yet, if the range includes zero
    05NEVER COUNTED

    What wenever count.

    However it would flatter the total. The guarantee on our pricing page is checked against this same record.

    ✕Stripe’s own recoveriesPayments recovered during Stripe’s retries are shown apart and never counted as kept.
    ✕Outcomes outside their windowRecovered: paid within 30 days of the card-update note. Won back: within 60 days of the win-back note.
    ✕A note-only save before 60 daysA note with no offer counts only if the customer is still paying 60 days later.
    ✕Lifetime valueEach customer counts at what they pay now, capped at the MRR at stake. A pause counts as $0. Kept ARR is Kept MRR × 12.
    ✕Leak fixes, mixed inRevenue from ended forever discounts is shown separately, never added to Kept MRR.
    ✕Failed or undelivered movesListed in the Ledger, never counted. Each dollar is credited once, by outcome type.
    06FAQ

    Questions aboutthe method.

    A share of at-risk customers, 10% by default, who get no move from North Metric. Comparing what happens to them with everyone else shows what your moves changed, not just what happened after them.

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